President Trump’s Policy Focus: Stimulating Growth Through Lower Rates

President Trump understands this relationship. His administration has made it clear that restoring GDP growth—and reviving the housing market as a core engine of that growth—is a top priority.

Public statements and economic messaging from his administration have emphasized the importance of reducing borrowing costs to unlock real estate, infrastructure, and consumer-driven expansion. We are already seeing signs that Trump is urging the Federal Reserve to act swiftly in lowering rates, framing it as essential to restoring economic momentum.

If those efforts are successful, they could realign monetary policy with a more growth-focused trajectory, which historically results in a drop in long-term interest rates—a scenario that could renew buyer activity across high-value markets like Ono Island, Orange Beach, Gulf Shores, and Perdido Key.

Current Rate Environment: Still Restrictive

As of May 2025, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is hovering around 6.81%, with jumbo and second-home loans frequently landing above 7%, depending on terms and credit.

This has been enough to suppress demand in several coastal second-home markets, particularly where cash buyers are holding out for improved leverage. In a normalizing environment, even a modest drop—say, from 6.81% to 6.00%—can recalibrate affordability by tens of thousands of dollars on a standard conforming loan.

My Forecast: A Target Rate of 6% by Fall 2026

Based on current economic signals, monetary policy trends, and the political will to support GDP expansion, I anticipate we will see rates fall to approximately 6% by Q3 or Q4 of 2026.

Here’s why:

• GDP contraction will trigger pressure on the Fed to ease

• Inflation appears to be stabilizing at levels that permit a softer stance

• The Trump administration is signaling aggressive pro-growth policy alignment

• Pent-up demand in real estate is ready to re-engage once financing becomes more attractive

This will particularly impact turnkey new construction offerings, vacant land sales, and premium resale properties across the Gulf Coast.

Final Thoughts

Rates aren’t just numbers—they are the product of national policy, global capital flow, and economic momentum. When you understand that, you can act proactively instead of reactively.

Whether you’re building, buying, or listing, I’d love to help you craft a strategy that aligns with both local market knowledge and the macroeconomic forces shaping our future.

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