What Two Years of Sales Say About Building a Spec Home on Ono Island
Canal, Old River, Bayou St. John and interior. Land versus tear-downs. The features buyers expect and the price points that moved. Here is how I read the numbers when an investor asks me where to begin.
When an investor asked me whether a spec home on Ono Island makes sense, my answer started in the same place: with the lot, not the house.
I put together a full Spec Build Investor Report. It covered two years of closed sales, September 26, 2024 to September 26, 2026, on Ono Island including Ono Harbour: 163 single-family homes (30 of them built 2022 or later) and 27 lots. This article walks through what I found and, just as important, how I would use it.
Advising clients on building on Ono Island is one of my favorite parts of the job. A spec home can be a beautiful project, but it is a long one, and the decisions you make on day one, which lot, which water, what to pay for the dirt, shape everything that comes after. If you want the bigger picture first, my Ono Island spec home investment guide is the best place to start.
For many investors, Ono Island is one option among several on the Gulf Coast, alongside places like Orange Beach, West Beach and Pensacola Beach. This piece stays focused on Ono.
Ono Island single-family sales, two years
A few terms I use
Median is the middle sale, not the average. Half sold for more and half for less, so one big sale does not skew it.
Days on market (DOM) is how long a home was listed before it went under contract.
Sale to original list compares the final sold price to the very first asking price. 92% means buyers typically closed about 8% under where the home started.
Big water is how I refer to Old River and Bayou St. John together, as opposed to the canals.
Ono Island Spec Home Investment Guide
A few things stood out to me right away. 101 of the 163 homes (62%) were waterfront: 50 canal, 33 Old River and 18 Bayou St. John. The other 62 were interior or water-access homes. Waterfront homes sold at a median $609 per square foot, compared with $334 for interior homes.
The median home sold was built in 2001, so most of what changes hands is older stock, and 30 sales were homes built 1985 to 1994, the age range where I start thinking about tear-downs or major remodels. Nearly half of buyers paid cash, and at $3M and up, 78% did.
What finished homes sold for, by water type
This is the table I pull up first with investors. It shows every single-family sale in the two-year window, grouped by the water the home sits on.
| Water type | Sales | Median sold | Median $/SF | Median DOM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canal | 50 | $1.48M | $473 | 36.5 |
| Old River | 33 | $2.80M | $772 | 59.5 |
| Bayou St. John* | 18 | $2.42M | $717 | 92.5 |
| Interior | 62 | $800K | $334 | 70 |
| Big water (Old River + Bayou St. John) | 51 | $2.60M | $734 | 68 |
| All waterfront | 101 | $1.99M | $609 | 52.5 |
| All single-family | 163 | $1.32M | $441 | 63 |
*In this report, Bayou St. John includes Ono Harbour and every other waterfront sale that is not canal or Old River. Some of these, such as homes in Ono Harbour, look at Ono Harbour rather than directly at Bayou St. John. I am happy to break those out further for you. DOM is days on market.
Median sold price per square foot
Median days on market
Canal versus big water
In this data set and time frame, canal homes had the deeper, faster buyer pool: 50 sales at a median of 36.5 days, with 42% selling within 30 days. Big water had the headroom. Canal homes sold at a median $473 per square foot, about 36% below big water at $734. New big-water homes sold at $1,083 per square foot against $656 on a canal, while big-water land cost less than twice as much. That comparison does not account for the type of homes, absorption rate, inventory and other factors, so I never read it as one water simply being better than the other.
Old River versus Bayou St. John
In this data set and time frame, Old River was the deeper and faster resale market, with 33 sales at a median $772 per square foot and 59.5 days, compared with 18 Bayou St. John sales at $717 and 92.5 days. Bayou St. John, though, produced the single highest new-build price per square foot, on 2 sales.
This comparison does not account for the type of homes, absorption rate, inventory and other factors, and it reflects these particular sales, not a prediction. A Bayou St. John home can absolutely sell faster and for more than an Old River home. I let the specific lot, its depth and its dock be the key factors in determining value.
The ceiling
In this data set, every home that sold above $1,000 per square foot was on big water. That is where the ceiling is. It is also a smaller, mostly cash buyer pool with thin comps, so it rewards patience and precision.
What finished new product brought
For a spec build, the resale numbers are only half the story. What I really want to know is what brand-new homes, built 2022 or later, actually closed for on each type of water. There were 30 of them in the window: 15 sold new by the builder, 14 resales of 2022-or-later homes and 1 to-be-built.
| Built 2022+ | Sales | Median sold | Median $/SF | Median sq ft | Median DOM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canal | 5 | $2.45M | $656 | 3,418 | 21 |
| Old River | 3 | $5.00M | $1,071 | 4,700 | 15 |
| Bayou St. John* | 2 | $5.34M | $1,208 | 4,468 | 4.5 |
| Interior | 20 | $933K | $361 | 2,580 | 86 |
| Big water new | 5 | $5.20M | $1,083 | 4,700 | 9 |
| All new (2022+) | 30 | $1.16M | $411 | 3,272 | 51.5 |
The 3 Old River sales are 2 homes (one sold twice in 2026), and the 5 canal sales are 4 homes. Two of the five big-water new builds closed with 0 days on market, so I treat their speed with care.
New waterfront commanded a real premium
New waterfront homes sold at a median $910 per square foot and 13 days, compared with $572 and 63 days for older waterfront homes (10 versus 91 sales). Buyers on the water clearly pay for new.
Canal new builds landed in a tight range
Every canal new build over the two years sold between $1.85M and $2.60M, at $476 to $761 per square foot. One canal home built in 2024 sold new at $1.85M ($476 per square foot) and resold 19 months later at $2.55M ($656 per square foot), with a pool, elevator and covered boathouse listed on the resale. That one story says a lot about what the finished package means to a canal buyer.
Interior new builds are the builder spec market
Twenty interior new builds sold at a median $933K, $361 per square foot, and a slower 86 days. Very large interior homes did not earn a higher price per square foot on their own.
Plan for the builder’s timeline
Homes sold new by the builder had a median of 91 days on market. Resales of 2022-or-later homes took 28. One new Old River home sat 829 days before closing at $5.0M. I always ask investors to plan their carry around the builder’s timeline, not the resale one. My piece on when to list an Ono Island spec home goes deeper on timing.
Vacant land, patiently negotiated, versus a tear-down
This is where I have the strongest opinion. I prefer vacant land, negotiated with patience, over a tear-down in most cases. Here is why.
On a canal: about $670K saved
Canal homes built before 1995, the tear-down age range, sold at a median $1.17M (15 sales). A vacant canal lot sold at a median $500K. That is about $670K more for a house you would demolish, before you pay for the demolition.
On big water: about $1.22M saved
Big-water homes from that era sold at a median $2.10M (25 sales), while a vacant Bayou St. John lot sold at a median $885K. A big-water tear-down starts about $1.22M behind a vacant lot.
Land sits, and that gives us room
Canal lots sat a median 269 days and closed about 13% under original list. Bayou St. John lots sat a median 268 days. Waterfront lots overall took a median 272.5 days. For a patient buyer, that is room to negotiate. The flip side is that land is slow to resell if plans change, so I want you sure of the lot before you commit.
When a tear-down does make sense
I consider a tear-down when the existing dock or boathouse, or a clearly better position on the water, is worth the premium over vacant land. Otherwise that premium is room you have spent before you break ground. If land is where you are leaning, my guide to investing in vacant land for a custom build on Ono Island walks through it.
*The Bayou St. John lot group includes two Harbour Dr lots in Ono Harbour, two Peninsula Dr lots and one Marlin Key Dr lot. Only one Old River lot sold in the window ($1.10M, 1,102 days on market). Waterfront footage was filled in for only 10 of the 27 lots, so price per front foot rests on a small sample.
“Start with the lot, not the house. The right lot, bought patiently, does more for a spec build than almost any finish you can choose.”
On the water, these are now expected
I compared the 101 waterfront sales with and without key features. The time on market is what caught my eye.
Elevator
Private pool
Covered boathouse with lift
Dock or lift
Nearly every waterfront home had one (86 of 101), so there was no price-per-square-foot premium. But the 15 without one took a median 105.5 days, versus 44.5 with one.
On new waterfront construction, 9 of 10 sales had an elevator and 8 of 10 had a pool. At this point, I treat an elevator, a private pool and a covered boathouse with lift as the expected package on the water, not upgrades.
Size tells a similar story. Five-bedroom homes sold fastest of any bedroom count: 36 sales at a median 35 days and $527 per square foot. The fastest homes in this data set were not simply the biggest ones. They were the ones priced right with the must-have features.
Features tend to come together in newer, larger, big-water homes, so I read these gaps as direction rather than a precise premium.
Let’s look at a lot together
Big-water lots are scarce, only six sold in two years, and they tend to sit. I watch them quietly and would love to let you know when one fits your plan. Call or text me.
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Where the buyer pool is deepest and fastest
When I think about where a spec home should land, I look at how each price band behaved across all 163 home sales.
| Price band | Sales | Median DOM | Sold in 30 days | Over 180 days | Cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under $1M | 54 | 74.5 | 20% | 30% | 37% |
| $1M to $1.5M | 36 | 67 | 31% | 11% | 47% |
| $1.5M to $2M | 23 | 33 | 43% | 17% | 48% |
| $2M to $3M | 32 | 51 | 32% | 6% | 47% |
| $3M and up | 18 | 18.5 | 56% | 11% | 78% |
The sweet spot: $1.5M to $3M
This band held 52 of the 101 waterfront sales (51%). Canal homes priced $1.5M to $3M sold in a median 24.5 days, and only 6% of $2M to $3M sales took more than 180 days. For a new canal build, that points to a home aimed at $2.0M to $2.6M.
$3M and up: fast when it is right, thin when it is not
Only 18 homes sold at $3M and up in two years, 17 of them on big water and 78% to cash buyers. The right product moved in a median 18.5 days. The misses sat a long time; the longest took 915 days.
Under $1.5M on the water is crowded
Waterfront homes under $1.5M took a median 66 to 84.5 days, and that range is mostly older canal stock. Every canal new build in the window sold at $1.85M or more, which makes under $1.5M the hardest place for a new waterfront spec.
Build cost per square foot is only part of the total
Build cost per square foot is the single biggest line in a spec project, and it varies with the builder, the construction type, the finish level, the elevation and foundation the lot requires, and the specs. But it is only one piece. On Ono Island, I want every one of these in your numbers from day one:
Land or tear-down, plus closing costs
Including the Ono Island POA admission and transfer fee of about $8,000, typically buyer-paid at closing. Confirm the current amount before closing. Demolition too, if it is a tear-down.
Permits and impact fees
Building permits, road and bridge impact fees, ACC review and deposits.
Fill sand before the foundation
The amount depends on the lot and the required elevation.
Site work
Clearing, grading, drainage, driveway and utilities.
Dock, pier, lift and boathouse
With permits and a depth check before you commit to the lot.
Pool and elevator
If they are not already in the build number.
Soft costs
Design, engineering, survey and builder’s risk.
Carry
Loan interest, taxes, wind and flood insurance, POA and Fire Authority dues, and utilities for the full hold.
Selling costs
Commission and seller closing costs on the exit.
To show why this matters: in this data set, new big-water homes sold for a median $5.20M against a median $885K Bayou St. John lot, about $4.32M left after land. On a canal, the median new build of $2.45M against a median $500K lot left about $1.95M. Those amounts are not what you keep. The build and every other cost above still come out of them.
A buy, permit, build and sell cycle usually spans at least one hurricane season, so I also like to see wind and flood insurance, which depend on elevation and construction, worked into the budget early.
Five ways to play an Ono Island spec build
1 · The no-brainer
Vacant waterfront land, the full package
Start with vacant waterfront land instead of a tear-down, and build the package waterfront buyers expect: elevator, private pool and a covered boathouse with lift. Price it right from day one. Waterfront lots sat a median 272.5 days and closed about 13% under original list, so there is room to negotiate.
2 · The sweet spot
A canal home finished to the top of the range
A canal home finished to reach the top of the canal range, priced $2.4M to $2.6M. The three strongest canal new builds sold at $656 to $761 per square foot, and canal homes at $2M to $3M sold in a median 18 days. It takes a finish that reaches the top of the range while keeping the build and every other cost in check.
3 · Safest, broadest buyers
A canal home around $1.9M to $2.2M
About 3,400 square feet, 4 to 5 bedrooms. Canal homes had 50 sales at a median 36.5 days and 93% of original list, the deepest and fastest waterfront market in this data set, and the $1.5M to $2M band draws more financed buyers (52% were not cash). It is the easiest to sell, with the thinnest room, so the budget has to stay disciplined.
4 · Risky, best reward
An ultra-custom big-water home
About 4,700 square feet or more, priced at or above the top new-build sales. Big-water new builds closed at $4.70M to $5.38M ($1,060 to $1,334 per square foot), the island’s top resale reached $7.20M, and one Old River home sold at $1,402 per square foot. But only 18 homes sold at $3M and up in two years, and this exit rests on 5 new-build sales (4 homes), so one sale can move the median.
5 · Slower sale, more room
A patiently bought big-water lot
A vacant Bayou St. John or Old River lot bought at a discount after it has sat, built to the proven big-water range, with a longer hold planned. Big-water lots sat a median 268 days and closed about 12% under original list; only 6 sold in two years. In this data set, the median new big-water sale was about 5.9 times the median lot, versus 4.9 times on a canal. That ratio is not what you keep; the build and all the other costs come out of it.
I go through each of these in more depth, lot by lot, in my Ono Island spec home investment guide.
If you asked me where to begin
Start with the lot, not the house. I would rather see you spend months negotiating the right vacant lot than rush into a tear-down. In this data set, a vacant canal lot saved about $670K over a canal tear-down, and a vacant Bayou St. John lot about $1.22M over a big-water tear-down.
For a first spec, I like a canal home. About 3,400 square feet, 4 to 5 bedrooms, finished to the top of the canal range, $2.0M to $2.6M, with an elevator, a private pool and a covered boathouse. That is where the buyer pool was deepest and fastest.
Big water is where the ceiling is. Every home above $1,000 per square foot in this data set was on big water. It is also a smaller, mostly cash pool with thin comps, so I suggest it to investors who are comfortable with a longer, more patient hold. Between Old River and Bayou St. John, I let the specific lot, its depth and its dock decide.
The fastest homes were not the biggest. They were the ones priced right with the must-have features.
Price right from day one. Buyers typically closed about 8% under original list across the board. A spec that starts at the right number rarely has to chase the market later.
Plan your carry for the builder’s timeline. Homes sold new by the builder had a median of 91 days on market, and one new Old River home sat 829 days. I would much rather you plan for that and be pleasantly surprised.
The questions
Spec build questions investors ask me
Click a question to open the answer.
Is a canal or big-water lot better for an Ono Island spec home?
Neither is simply better. In this data set and time frame, canal homes had the deeper, faster buyer pool (50 sales, 36.5 median days), while big water had more headroom (new big-water homes at a median $1,083 per square foot versus $656 on a canal). That comparison does not account for home type, absorption rate or inventory.
The specific lot, its depth and its dock should drive the decision. Call or text me and we can look at the lots you are considering.
Old River or Bayou St. John: which sells better?
In this data set and time frame, Old River was the deeper, faster resale market ($772 per square foot, 59.5 median days), and Bayou St. John produced the highest new-build price per square foot, on 2 sales. That does not account for home type, absorption rate or inventory, and a Bayou St. John home can sell faster and higher than an Old River home.
In my report, the Bayou St. John group also includes Ono Harbour and other non-canal, non-Old River waterfront. Some of those homes look at Ono Harbour rather than directly at Bayou St. John.
Should I buy a vacant lot or a tear-down?
In most cases I prefer vacant land, patiently negotiated. In this data set, a canal tear-down cost about $670K more than a vacant canal lot, and a big-water tear-down about $1.22M more than a vacant Bayou St. John lot, before demolition. A tear-down makes sense to me when the existing dock, boathouse or position on the water is worth that premium.
What would you build for a first spec home on Ono Island?
For a first spec, I like a canal home of about 3,400 square feet with 4 to 5 bedrooms, finished to the top of the canal range, $2.0M to $2.6M, with an elevator, a private pool and a covered boathouse with lift. Every canal new build in this data set sold between $1.85M and $2.60M.
Which features matter most to waterfront buyers?
Waterfront homes with an elevator sold in a median 30 days versus 65.5 without; with a private pool, 33 versus 66; and with a covered boathouse with lift, 42.5 versus 81. On new waterfront construction, 9 of 10 had an elevator and 8 of 10 had a pool, so I treat them as expected.
What costs go into a spec build besides build cost per square foot?
Build cost per square foot is only part of the total. Plan for permits and impact fees, fill sand before the foundation, the dock, the pool, site work, soft costs, carrying costs and selling costs, plus the Ono Island POA admission and transfer fee of about $8,000 at closing (confirm before closing).
How long should I plan to carry a spec home?
Plan around the builder’s timeline. Homes sold new by the builder had a median of 91 days on market, versus 28 for resales of 2022-or-later homes, and one new Old River home sat 829 days. The full cycle usually spans at least one hurricane season.
Pricing right from day one helps. Buyers typically closed about 8% under original list.
What data is this based on?
Baldwin County MLS data through Perchwell: closed sales from September 26, 2024 to September 26, 2026 on Ono Island, including Ono Harbour. That is 163 single-family homes and 27 lots. If you would like the full report, or one for another area, call or text me.
More on building and investing on Ono Island
Ono Island spec home investment guide
Investing in vacant land for a custom build
About this data
This information is generated from Baldwin County MLS data via Perchwell, is deemed reliable but not guaranteed, and may not reflect listings of Meredith Folger Amon or Bellator Real Estate. Closed sales 9/26/2024 to 9/26/2026; 163 single-family homes and 27 lots on Ono Island, including Ono Harbour.
This is an educational market analysis, not an appraisal or a guarantee of value or return, and it is not legal, tax, insurance or engineering advice. Target figures are my read of where new product actually closed; they are not appraisals. Meredith · Bellator Real Estate · Search The Gulf · Orange Beach, Alabama.
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